Handicapping Friday's Division I playoff games

Everyone's got an opinion on how things will shake down this Friday in the first round of the Sac-Joaquin Section Division I playoffs.

There are those that believe Merced has been exposed by the Turlock schools in the last two weeks, and won't come within shooting distance of the section final. Some even believe whole-heartedly that Tracy will score the upset and jolt the south off its axis.

Then there are those that think Los Banos, because it was just 6-4 and snuck into the playoffs on a tiebreaker, will be nothing more than speed bump for Stockton St. Mary's -- a sexy pick for CIF State Bowl game earlier in the season.

Now it's my turn to weigh in.

Let's start with Merced, shall we?

-- Merced should be at full strength by Friday night's kickoff, which it wasn't in last week's win over Pitman. Merced played without defensive end Nathan Mayfield, and went stretches without quarterback Allen Huddleston and Bernard Bolden. When a team like Merced walks onto the field with all its bullets, watch out.

-- Speaking of bullets, Merced has come away from the playoffs heart-broken and empty handed the last two years -- with championship-caliber teams, too. History suggests Merced can't keep turning out talent-rich rosters like it has, so the pressure is there for this year's group to finally get it done.

-- And that issue about Rob Scheidt's boys being exposed, I suspect Merced welcomed the competition -- to some degree. There's very little gained from a blowout. Players become disinterested, lackadaisical, etc. Now that they've been through the fire and survived, Scheidt knows what to expect from his bunch when things get hairy in the playoffs -- because, at some point, they will.

As for Los Banos, here's my take on its first-round matchup...

I love it. I absolutely love it.

My reasons are as follows:

-- Los Banos is far better than their 6-4 record, and I suspect St. Mary's knows it. Los Banos has already proven it can sling arrows with St. Mary's mighty offense, and really, Friday should be no different. When the game turns to blows and haymakers, how can you not like Los Banos' chances?

-- Coaching. If you didn't already know, Dennis Stubbs is one helluva coach. Don't be fooled by that easy going sideline personality. Stubbs is calculating, a master of preparation and motivation. He got his boys to bottle up Turlock's ground attack, and then for three quarters beat Atwater's tricky offense to every spot. He'll have a plan to stop St. Mary's quarterback Cody Vaz, and you better believe LB will come out of the gate with their collective foot on the pedal.

-- The defensive line. This is where the game will be won. In their first meeting, St. Mary's offensive line controlled the game, giving Vaz plenty of time to pick apart LB's secondary while opening up holes for the run game. The onus falls on LB's big bodies inside, who were gashed by Buhach Colony last week. If they can regain the form they had against Atwater two weeks ago, creating an abundance of pressure in the backfield, St. Mary's could be in for a long, frustrating night.

My prediction: Merced wins, pulling away in the second half.

Los Banos-St. Mary's, on the other hand, is a much tougher call. But if I had to predict, I'd say the game comes down to the final possession. The 12th round, if you will. Whoever throws the last punch scores the knockout.